Vaccine thoughts

[wayne]

Thanks, Steve.  Missed swapping stories with your group as well. Looking forward  to catching up, stay safe!

[Jay Thomas]

Ontario is opening up booking a Covid vaccination for all Ontario residents over the age of 75 Years as of Monday 22 Mar.

Jay

[Oarin]

That's great news, Jay. I hope it's not long before it's available to all.

[chiaro]

First if the US is leading now consider that Canada gets none of it's vaccine from the US Pfizer plant, it must be imported from Europe. I think the same is true for the Monderna vaccine.

As for things opening up I am optimistic.
-the summer is a traditional time of virus reduction
-the US is now well ahead of schedule at 114 million vaccinations
-Americans are much more leery of taking the virus so soon the US will come to a point where everyone who wants a shot gets a shot
-supply no longer going to Americans will go to Canadians
-Canadian imports of vaccine are ramping up as contracts come into full force. I do believe we will hit our target of vaccinating everyone who wants a shot by the end of July

My bet is by sometime August the infection rate will have dropped like a stone in both countries and you could get the border opening. We could go back to closed border in the winter precisely because the US doesn't get to full herd immunity and cases rise again, especially if a new variant emerges 

[chiaro]

To test my theory out I looked at death and infection rates of southern states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida. There is a noticeable decline in both yardsticks in all three states. Arizona in particular has rates going straight down. This time of year is their outdoor season. If you remember things got bad down there in the summer when people stay indoors because of the heat. There is now growing evidence that vitamin D protects against cv19.

I agree with a previous poster, the border will open when Canadians are protected. That could be if infection rates are at rock bottom levels in both countries or if all Canadians who want a shot are vaccinated and rates are falling like a stone.

[T-Bone]

Just two days after opening vaccine to 40+, Ohio opened availability to all 16 and older today; vaccine doses should be freely flowing to our Canadian friends very, very soon.

[chiaro]

Just two days after opening vaccine to 40+, Ohio opened availability to all 16 and older today; vaccine doses should be freely flowing to our Canadian friends very, very soon.

That's incredible. Ohio seems way ahead of other states?

[SgtCrabby]

Texas is opening up to all adults in a week, if supplies on hand hold out.

I've been fully vaccinated since February,  but I still do not plan nor expect that the border will open this season.  Not to be a party pooper, but that's my view.  I hope I am totally wrong for all y'all here in the US planning to go north this year.
It isn't just the US citizens getting vaccinated,  but also the Canadian citizens.

[limacharley]

Saw on the national news this morning that Canada has vaccinated just over 9% of the population.

[Ira]

NY opened vaccines to anyone 50+. Hope that will be expanded soon. Then maybe the border could be opened by August? Hoping our crew (and everyone else's) will be able to make our first trek to Kipawa.

[chiaro]

....I still do not plan nor expect that the border will open this season.  Not to be a party pooper, but that's my view.  I hope I am totally wrong for all y'all here in the US planning to go north this year.
It isn't just the US citizens getting vaccinated,  but also the Canadian citizens.

Well no it's not just about vaccination rates, the key variable for an open border is not VRs.

Interesting, the Canadian fed decreased the quarantine time from 14 days to 7 days for NHL players because the trade deadline is coming up. The justification was that the players get so much testing and can travel on private planes so these transfers would still be safe. 

Safety is the key issue. When will it be safe to cross the border? People think that is when we have a near zero transmission rate, it's not. We have lockdowns and reopenings now and the key factor they look at are hospitalizations and deaths. Linked to that is the rate of transmission. They don't want the hospitals overwhelmed and an excessive number of people dying. When the hospitals are overwhelmed not only does the death rate increase for covid patients but for all patients.

So with vaccinations you will get less death. They are vaccinating 75 and up right now and giving Astra Zeneca to those 60-65. You will probably have 60 and up vaccinated by the end of May. Deaths will decrease significantly like they are in the US and the UK. Next is the transmission rates, those will stay higher for a while. Right now they are rising as UK variant is taking hold. We may go into another lockdown, but in my opinion good weather will turn this around. Canadians live outdoors when the weather gets good and transmission rates dropped like a stone last year at that time.

When the transmission rates drop like a stone the border will open. What might speed things up is a vaccine passport, the feds may start with that. The tourist industry needs that.

I see the border opening July-August. Key in both countries would be the vaccination rate, are we getting to herd immunity. If 40% of the population doesn't get a vaccination we are going to live in a new normal with possible yearly winter restrictions and booster shots. Borders may close in the winter on an outbreak, sporting events may be limited, ditto bars etc.

[reelpro]

Big key is going to be variants.

Good chance vaccines will not protect people from the new variants, which are becoming the biggest number of new infections.

They are working now on “booster shots “ for the variants existing now.

If case numbers ramp up again, there is a greater chance of new variants emerging .

We need everyone to stay the course , keep safe practices and masks , and hopefully Jabs and good practices will drive case numbers down.

Right now everyone thinks the Jab is a cure and we are all good to go.

Sadly not true Ontario and many US areas are ramping up into wave 3 right now, probably we will see the highest case numbers ever in the next 30-60 days.

New vaccines are being built to cover the 3 main variants now, these might be available in a few months , as long as piles of new variants are not emerged by then, there is still a chance to beat this thing down.

Everyone figures hey ,   I got a vaccine, and goes “back to life as normal”  we are totally screwed.

Top virologists are still saying we have a limited window to vaccinate and keep case numbers in check, , or we will be chasing variants of this fuckin bug for a decade or 2.

Mask up, 10 feet apart, save the huggin and kissin and high 5’s and fist bumps for a while yet, get the Jab and maybe if we’re lucky we will have numbers dwindling by The end of 2021.

Man I really hope I’m wrong and case numbers plummet to zippo this summer, but I think we will be going over this same crap next March about the numbers of the latest variant and how many boosters are available for it.

[chiaro]

This thought is for Canadians only. The Astra Zenca is limited to those 60 and up, and it appears not to be as popular also. Some are waiting for the other vaccines. This may be a distinct advantage to fishermen aged 60 and up. They have delayed second shots of the other vaccines to a full four months. Since there is a only a certain segment of the population who can, and who want to take the A-Z vaccine, you may well get both shots a lot sooner then 4 months apart. I've pretty well made my mind up about doing a trip this year after my vaccine and lodge owners are definitely looking for clients for the early summer. You may get prime weeks that are never open to non-regulars, possibly even at discount.

[T-Bone]

Maaaaa'n....you guys are bringing me down.

[Jay Thomas]

Ontario Premier Doug Ford's government announced Thursday that it's putting the entire province under new restrictions for 28 days. The measure comes into effect as of 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, the province said in a news release, and will be in place for at least four weeks.

Jay